On Naked & Afraid, participants who take a lot of pride in their experience at fishing or hunting think they can beat the 1-in-10 odds of getting food. They might believe their experience and know-how improves their odds to the 1-in-3, for example.
In the business world, managers think they can similarly improve their chances of succeeding with their smarts and/or experience.
Neither are good at assessing odds.
Both are correct that their know-how does increase their odds, but it improves it to 1-in-10.
Someone without the same know-how might have even lower odds of succeeding, maybe 1-in-20 or worse.