Random COVID-19 testing in Kansas City area shows 3.8% have it

According to this article, Johnson County in Kansas tested a random sample of people for COVID-19 (not antibodies) and 3.8% came back positive.

Health officials have revealed on April 16 the results of the past six days of randomized community testing.

Tests show that 3.8% of those who participated tested positive.

That doesn’t sound like much.

But, if this is representative of the population in the KC Metro area then about 80,000 people out of a population of 2.1 million (KC and surrounding suburbs in Missouri and Kansas) would have COVID-19 right now.

If percentages about hospitalization (about 20% of confirmed cases) and deaths (1-5%) are accurate, KC hospitals should have about 16,000 COVID patients and 800 and 4,000 deaths.

The KC area currently has about 1,000 confirmed cases and 70 deaths.

It is unclear how many are being treated in hospitals because that has not reported. But, I take that as an indication that they are well below the 16,000. It think it would be big news otherwise.

If we carried that number out to the population of the United States, that implies about 12 million cases of COVID-19 currently.

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