Could the lockdowns cause the peaks? Thinking out loud

I know that sounds stupid.

But, I saw someone point out that places tend to peak in cases and deaths about 2-3 weeks  after lockdowns take effect, which also happens to be the amount of time window for the illness to progress to the point of seeking help and potentially dying.

They also pointed out that places like S. Korea also didn’t lock down.

That made me go hmm…

Theory A is a lot folks were already infected from exponential spread before the lockdowns, the lockdowns stopped them from infecting as many others therefore the peaks lagged the ceasing of the exponential spread when the lockdowns took place. faster.

That’s probably right.

But at least hear this person’s theory out before going off on them in a blind rage. At first I thought it was dumb, then after thinking about it, there might be something to it.

Theory B is that when the general population is interacting business as usual, the virus spreads steadily, rather than exponentially, like other cold viruses.

But, when you stop normal society and lock families in together all day at the same time, that greatly increases the chances of family members who were infected of spreading to their family at that time.

So, something that was slipping through 10-15% of the population of the time, can suddenly spike to 2 to 4 times that at once because families went from spending a few hours together at night to being together 24/7.

Maybe the infected would have eventually spread it to their family, but like other viruses, it would have been over a few weeks just due to normal busy schedules, instead of so much within a few days.

So, if you happened to be locked down with someone who was infected, suddenly your chances of catching the virus at the time of the lockdown, instead of next week or the week after or never, increased, and that’s what caused the cases to spike a few weeks after lockdowns.

Theory B might be a crackpot, but it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a knee jerk (or non jerk) government action had subtle and bad unintended consequences.

 

 

2 thoughts on “Could the lockdowns cause the peaks? Thinking out loud

  1. Pingback: Are COVID-19 peaks caused by stay-at-home orders? Part 2 | Our Dinner Table

  2. Pingback: A Covid-19 Story | Our Dinner Table

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