Sebelius

When I saw the alert that Kathleen Sebelius is going to resign her post as Secretary of Health and Human Services, the classic Warren Buffett quote came to mind:

When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.

The business of attempting to solve problems caused by government intervention with more government intervention is a business with bad economics.

More good stuff from Cochrane on health care

I recommend reading John Cochrane’s op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal, What to do when Obamacare unravels. It’s a great follow-up to my health care reforms.

Here are a couple quotes from Cochrane’s piece that addresses some common concerns over non-government medicine.

What about the homeless guy who has a heart attack? Yes, there must be private and government-provided charity care for the very poor. What if people don’t get enough checkups? Send them vouchers. To solve these problems we do not need a federal takeover of health care and insurance for you, me, and every American.

And (emphasis mine)…

No other country has a free health market, you may object. The rest of the world is closer to single payer, and spends less.

Sure. We can have a single government-run airline too. We can ban FedEx and UPS, and have a single-payer post office. We can have government-run telephones and TV. Thirty years ago every other country had all of these, and worthies said that markets couldn’t work for travel, package delivery, the “natural monopoly” of telephones and TV. Until we tried it. That the rest of the world spends less just shows how dysfunctional our current system is, not how a free market would work.

Avoiding reality sometimes works

Good blog post from Clay Shirky about the Obamacare website (Thanks to Russ Roberts @ Cafe Hayek). Here are a few excerpts.

Shirky demonstrates another lesson from The Croods, on why executive paid him to collect information from their own employees. Here he describes an instance where he is with a company’s programmer in the presence of its executives (emphasis mine):

…the programmer leaned forward and said “You know, we have all that information downstairs, but nobody’s ever asked us for it.”

I remember thinking “Oh, finally!” I figured the executives would be relieved this information was in-house, delighted that their own people were on it, maybe even mad at me for charging an exorbitant markup on local knowledge. Then I saw the look on their faces as they considered the programmer’s offer. The look wasn’t delight, or even relief, but contempt. The situation suddenly came clear: I was getting paid to save management from the distasteful act of listening to their own employees.

Humility is not common in the executive suite.

On bottoms up vs. top down (trial and error, specifically):

The idea that “failure is not an option” is a fantasy version of how non-engineers should motivate engineers. That sentiment was invented by a screenwriter, riffing on an after-the-fact observation about Apollo 13; no one said it at the time. (If you ever say it, wash your mouth out with soap. If anyone ever says it to you, run.) Even NASA’s vaunted moonshot, so often referred to as the best of government innovation, tested with dozens of unmanned missions first, several of which failed outright.

Failure is always an option. Engineers work as hard as they do because they understand the risk of failure. And for anything it might have meant in its screenplay version, here that sentiment means the opposite; the unnamed executives were saying “Addressing the possibility of failure is not an option.”

Unfortunately, every once in a while, avoiding reality sometimes works. Sometimes people get lucky when they exclaim that ‘failure is not an option’ and actually create something successful. Those people can be dangerous.

Round and round

This excellent post from Don Boudreaux, reminded me of my less worthy attempt at this in 2012.

This is the dynamic in a nutshell:

1. In a freer health care market, the costs of being unhealthy or uninsured is borne by individuals. This provides strong incentives to stay healthy and insured.

2. In #1, some people will still fall through the cracks. Some because of bad choices they made, but others because of unfortunate circumstances.

3. Attempts to solve #2 that involve anything other than encouraging people to make better choices creates moral hazards* that cause even more people to take less responsibility for their health and not buy insurance. This increases costs for those who pay.

4. The same compassionate people who wanted to solve #2 try — with no apparent awareness of this — reproducing the natural incentives in #1 to stay healthy and insured by dictating both. This appears in mandates that sound like, If we’re paying for you health care, then we have the right to tell you how to live your life.

We already see evidence of this in New York City with bans on salt, trans fats and large, sugary drinks. New York was already well down the Obamacare path, which is why New York City was one of the first areas in the U.S. to show signs of #4.

Here’s an example from Japan. I see evidence of this starting here. My employer, for example, is now collecting my BMI and waist size and will soon want to start tracking my exercise activity.

Of course, the First Lady’s efforts to reduce childhood obesity are also initial steps in the direction of #4.

*Moral hazard – A moral hazard is created when some measure taken to reduce risks, increases the risks people are willing to take.

One example of this can be seen in football. Wearing helmets sounds like a logical safety measure, but has resulted in players hitting each other harder and even taking measures (like doping on steroids to build muscle mass) to hit ever harder.

The link to the post about the BMI penalties in Japan provides an example of moral hazard in medicine.

Ask not…

Someone once said:

Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.

It sure seems like a heck of a lot of people are asking what their country can do for them.

Solving the wrong problems

I work with two contractors who are evaluating health insurance options because of Obamacare. They have been happy with their high-deductible, low premium insurance.

They are now discovering that the deductibles on their plans are too high to qualify as Obamacare plans and their insurance companies will not continue to offer them. They figure that changing to a lower-deductible, Obamacare-approved plan will increase their monthly insurance costs by $600 – $800 per month.

It seems I remember someone saying something like, if you’re happy with your insurance plan you can keep it (though, I guess not literally).

More examples of signals rather than causes

Being a homeowner makes one responsible.  More likely: Responsible people become homeowners.

Going to preschool improves ones chances of success. More likely: Having parents that do a lot of things, including sending kids to preschool, improves ones chances of success.

A college degree increases your earnings. More likely: Ambitious folks find ways to make more money. I’ve heard of studies that look at non-college graduates that have similar ambition and work ethic as college graduates that show that they have about the same earnings as college graduates.

Countries with government health care have better health, as measured by life expectancy and infant mortality, than the U.S. More likely: Other factors like health habits, diet choices, demographics, lifestyle choices and differences in the way these health stats are tracked from country to country have bigger impact than whether the health care system is provided by government or not.

Can you think of any?